The Politics of Change in the Middle East by Robert B Satloff

Author:Robert B Satloff [Satloff, Robert B]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Middle Eastern, Social Science, Political Science, World, Regional Studies
ISBN: 9781000304664
Google: dRmvDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 51581650
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-09-16T00:00:00+00:00

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Regime Stability and Change in the Gulf: The Case of Saudi Arabia

Emile A. Nakhleh

The 1990–1991 Gulf crisis not only generated profound political and security challenges for Gulf Arab states, but it also provoked deep concern in the Arab “street” and among Arab intellectuals. For the states, their inability—individually and collectively through the Arab League—to thwart Iraqi aggression and reestablish Kuwaiti sovereignty, combined with their reliance on foreign forces to restore the peace, raised serious questions regarding the ultimate defense and security of the Gulf region. For the peoples and elites of the Gulf, the crisis sowed widespread confusion about the continuing relevance of concepts like Arab unity, Arab nationalism, and pan-Arabism.

The challenges facing the Gulf states as a consequence of the Gulf War are both internal and external. It is somewhat ironic that many of these challenges were brought forth by Saddam Hussein’s “public diplomacy” message justifying his aggression against Kuwait. Regardless of the veracity of Saddam’s message, several of his claims found resonance in the Arab street. These included his calls for democratization, political participation, and redistribution of wealth; his condemnation of the artificiality of state boundaries and the presence of foreign forces on Arab soil; and his appeal to universal human rights, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and Islam.

The internal challenges focus principally on the relationship between the individual and the regime and the Arab peoples’ desire to participate in the political and economic national policies of their countries. Though mostly centralized, Arab regimes—monarchies and single-party autocracies—are responding to these demands by promising some kind of a shura (consultation) system of limited participation in governance. Not surprising, no ruler has come forth with a promise for a true democracy. However, even a trend toward “shuracracy” is sure to generate some upheaval in the region. In this regard, the disturbances in Algeria are a precursor of further confrontations.

Demands for democratization have generated a range of important question for the ruling regimes: Can regimes suivi ve without greater popular participation? Can they survive with greater participation? Does greater political participation mean more stability—internally and regionally—or less? Will pluralism work in an Islamic context? Can the Islamic concepts of shura, ijtihad (reasoning), and ijma (consensus) be the basis for political participation in Muslim polities?

While the challenges facing the Arab state system cover the entire region, from the Western Sahara to the Arabian Peninsula, this chapter addresses the challenges that apply to the Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. While many of these challenges predated the Gulf crisis, others were brought into sharp focus by the war. Although one is tempted to identify regional security as the most important short-run challenge resulting from the Gulf crisis, in the long term, internal stability looms as the largest challenge. In this context, internal stability of the family-ruled Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, cannot endure unless a functional partnership is established between the ruling family and the citizenry.

A precondition for that to occur will be acceptance by the ruling elites of the principle of popular political participation

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